A SMART GOVERNMENT
The new governments of Israel and the U.S and their ability to work with each other has been discussed and written about endlessly with very little analysis and a great deal of sloganeering. The question of whether or not the new Israeli government’s ability to work with the new American government is raised as though this is the sole purpose of the government of Israel.

I will focus here on the Israeli government, this is a government that is unique in many ways, let’s focus on the three main criticisms: First, it’s size, second, it is too “right” wing to work with the American government, Third, “the abandonment of the “two state solution”.

TOO BIG TO FUNCTION; First understanding that both the electoral system and government structure in Israel is very different from that of the United States. (a previous post describes that difference) is crucial. The current Prime Minister, Binyamin Natanyahu had to put together a government, not only of the winners as in the U.S., but to build a coalition of many parties even some small ones requiring great diplomatic and political skill to work smoothly. As I look at the list of cabinet ministers, it is excessive in size, but is also one of the smartest governments we have had in the last two decades. With names like Omer Moav, Moshe Yaalon, Yuval Steinitz, Yaakov Neeman, Avigdor Leiberman, Daniel Herschkovitz, Dan Meridor, among others, plus the appointment of Michael Oren as Ambassador to the U.S. and Natan Sharansky heading the Jewish Agency, this is as talented a government as can be put together. The size of the government is due to Israel’s peculiar election system that allows for a surfeit of political parties that dilute the pool of Knesset seats thus requiring too many parties being involved in the final make up of the government. The Prime Minister did a masterful job of pulling together a large but workable government while paying careful attention to the wishes of the voters.

TOO RIGHT WING TO WORK WITH THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION; The election results clearly showed an Israeli public wanting a government that takes a stronger stand on security issues. Campaign issues that were discussed the most during the recent election called for a stronger stance against Israel’s enemies, less apologizing for our existence and much less concern with pleasing the international community at Israel’s expense.
This all requires a right leaning government, remembering again that the political right and the political left in Israel are very different than they are in the United States. Even though the International media insists on characterizing it as extremely right wing, it is in fact moderate for those who understand the situation within the neighborhood in which Israel lives. The American political commentator, John McLaughlin predicted on his television show on May 8th that by next Easter, Tzipi Livni will be prime minister, this illustrates how lacking in understanding of the Israeli mental state he is. If he’s taking bets I would certainly want some of that action.

Many of the Israelis I talked to at various campaign events in Israel wanted to vote for Avigdor Leiberman, but decided to vote for Likud instead because so many fears were raised from media coverage of Leiberman as an extremist, racist, hate-monger, none of which are accurate assessments. Current polls show a growing approval of Leiberman and Natanyahu, if the election were held today it appears that both Natanyahu and Leiberman would have many more votes, perhaps not needing as many small parties to form the government. Kadima has suffered the most. My prediction is that unless the current government does tremendous harm, Kadima will not be a factor in the next election. There appears to be some level of confidence that this government could actually last the 4 years and 9 months of its term. Given that this is the 32nd government in 61 years that would be a great accomplishment.
Although during the American campaign, generally Israelis polled felt Senator McCain would be more understanding and helpful of Israel’s security situation, President Obama is liked and concerns had as much to do with the last three administrations. Regarding the American administration, the most common comments I heard were the famous Menachem Begin quote to Ronald Reagan, when Reagan tried to hand down his decision on solving the Palestinian issue, “Israel is not a banana republic”, other similar expressions were, “we are not America’s 51st state” or “we are not an American colony”. These comments show the determination of Israelis to develop a non-apologetic, strong and prideful relationship with America. Israelis in general express a very high opinion of America (72% in a most recent poll although only 38% believed that President Obama has a positive attitude toward Israel) believing if they stand up for themselves America will not push policies, which could be suicidal for Israel. The same poll showed that 63% of Israelis felt Obama’s intent to reconciliate with the Muslim and Arab world to improve U.S. standing will come at Israel’s expense. A desperate desire for peace has been replaced after the disapproval of nearly every action of the Olmert government to an acceptance of Leiberman’s view “Let us have no illusion, what was has failed”. The biggest difference of opinion between Israel and the United States is also the biggest issue. The Israelis strongly hold that until the Iran situation is addressed nothing can be done on the Palestinian issue as Iran is using its surrogates, Hamas, Hizbullah and Syria to maintain and increase the level of violence against Israel. The Americans say that solving the Palestinian state issue is first in importance. This could be a tripping point in the relationship as the most clever of diplomats will not be able change Israel’s mind on this issue. Israel sees this as a survival issue and the major concern for every Israeli.
Whether or not the current government in Israel can work with the current American government will probably work out positively, I, at least, am optimistic. The new Israeli Ambassador has been an intelligent, reasonable, but strong voice for Israel in the past and understands that part of his job is educating the Obama administration. President Obama seems to be intelligent and a fast learner who doesn’t mind backing down and changing direction if necessary.
THE TWO STATE SOLUTION: The “two state solution” is still widely accepted by the general population (61%) but not at this time. The Palestinians are dysfunctional and not ready. Money alone won’t work. The two-state solution brings to mind the Einstein quote, “the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. There has been a general holding on to the same idea and the same negotiating strategies that haven’t worked for the past 16 years. The Palestinians are actually in worse shape since electing Hamas to their government while failing to make even the smallest compromise on their part towards Israel’s security. Every time Israel has given an inch it has been at the expense of their own security. Avigdor Lieberman has been castigated in the American press for saying “if you want peace prepare for war” this of course is not Mr. Lieberman’s idea, it was first voiced by Seneca and has been repeated consistently for centuries by leaders all over the world. The Jewish experience resonates with the truth of this idea.
The Israeli government sees that a two state solution may happen in time, there is little disagreement on that but it will not come until there is security for Israel, and an end to violence that could bring prosperity for the Palestinians. They must begin building something in the territories. Israel will help, according to government pronouncements, the Palestinians have to maintain law and order and educational reform that eliminates the teaching of hate and violence. These reforms must come from within and precede statehood.
The Natanyahu government is made up of some of the smartest and most experienced people in Israel and there isn’t much doubt that they will work things out with the Obama administration, unless the Obama government is intransigent in pursuit of an immediate (two years) Palestinian State. In general, Israelis remember that we did not have help and support from the U.S. government until after the Six Day War, if it is necessary they will do it again rather than give up its possibility of existence. While a helpful relationship is highly desirable, Israelis believe that the U.S. needs Israel as well as Israel needs the U.S. and they will work with us. The current Israeli government is not in a position to compromise much on security issues, regardless of what the Obama government wants. Security compromises will pull the government down very quickly. The understanding that the last two wars (with Hizbullah and Operation Cast Lead) were left unfinished has created a need to think of Israel’s best interests before the demands of the U.S. or the European Union. Olmert made the statement to the Israeli media after declaring the ceasefire in Gaza, that he called the ceasefire at that time to accommodate the Obama government, whether he was telling the truth or not, Israelis, in general and the army in particular were not pleased. (see the previous post, conversations with soldiers leaving Gaza after the ceasefire).The long and successful relationship between the U.S and Israel will continue as long as it is beneficial to both sides. The shared values and work in many fields, trade, military strategies and tools, health care research and development, technology research and development, agricultural technology and many other areas will keep the two countries working together